Gacha Probability Calculator | How Many Pulls Until You Get It? Pity, 50/50 Rate-up With Guarantee, Pulls to Max Copies, and How Many Blind Boxes to Complete a Set
The Gacha Probability Calculator answers “how many more pulls until I get it?” for gacha games and random merchandise with exact probabilities rather than random simulations. “Chance to get” takes a drop rate (1%, 0.6% …) and a number of pulls and shows the chance of at least one or several copies, the chance of getting none (how many out of 1,000 players go home empty-handed) and the pulls and cost needed for 50%, 90% and 99% of players. “Pity, 50/50 & copies” combines the top-rarity rate and the featured (rate-up) rate, hard pity that guarantees the top rarity on the Nth pull, the 50/50 rule where losing makes the next top-rarity pull a guaranteed featured unit, and point-based spark/exchange, including carried-over pity and guarantee, to calculate the chance, average and worst case of collecting up to 7 copies, plus the distribution of copies. “Blind-box set completion” tells you how many random pin badges, acrylic stands, trading cards or capsule toys (with optional secret/chase items) you need to buy to complete a set, how many duplicates to expect, and the chance of getting your favourite. A rate × pulls table and set-size guide are included. Everything is calculated in your browser.
Chance to get from drop rate and pulls
Answers “what are my odds if I pull a 1% unit 100 times?” for a gacha where every pull has the same chance (no pity).
¥3,000 for 10 pulls means ¥300. Enter 0 to hide costs
How many copies you want
Result
Chance of 1+ copies in 100 pulls
63.4%
Chance of getting none
36.6%
Average copies (expected value)
1.00 copies
How many pulls until you get it?
| Guide | Pulls | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Half of players get it (50%) | 69 pulls | ¥20,700 |
| 9 in 10 players get it (90%) | 230 pulls | ¥69,000 |
| Almost certain (99%) | 459 pulls | ¥137,700 |
Copies after 100 pulls
- 0 copies36.6%
- 1 copies37.0%
- 2 copies18.5%
- 3 copies6.1%
- 4 copies1.5%
- 5 or more0.34%
A 1% drop rate means “once every 100 pulls”, yet the chance of getting it in 100 pulls is 63.4%. Every pull is a fresh draw, so no number of misses makes the next pull more likely to hit.
These are exact calculations that add up the probability of every pull, not random simulations. Real games may have undisclosed mechanics such as soft pity (rates rising near the end), so the results apply when the published rates are exactly right.
All calculations run in your browser and the numbers you enter are never sent to a server. Settings are saved in this browser.
ABOUT
About Gacha Probability Calculator | How Many Pulls Until You Get It? Pity, 50/50 Rate-up With Guarantee, Pulls to Max Copies, and How Many Blind Boxes to Complete a Set
The Gacha Probability Calculator works out, for gacha games and random merchandise, the chance of getting something, how many pulls it takes, the average number of pulls to max copies and how many items you need to buy to complete a set. Instead of running random simulations, it adds up the exact probability of every pull. Besides simple fixed-rate gachas, it handles hard pity (the top rarity is guaranteed on the Nth pull), the 50/50 rule (a top-rarity pull that is not the featured unit makes the next one guaranteed) and point-based spark/exchange, together with carried-over pity. It also calculates how many random pin badges, trading cards or capsule toys you need for a full set and how many duplicates you will get.
How to use Gacha Probability Calculator | How Many Pulls Until You Get It? Pity, 50/50 Rate-up With Guarantee, Pulls to Max Copies, and How Many Blind Boxes to Complete a Set
- 1In “Chance to get”, enter the featured unit's drop rate (%), the number of pulls and how many copies you want
- 2Read the chance of getting it, the chance of getting none, and the pulls and cost needed for 50%, 90% and 99% of players
- 3For gachas with pity or a 50/50, open “Pity, 50/50 & copies” and pick a common system or enter the top-rarity and featured rates, the pity count and the exchange count
- 4Enter your current pity count and whether your next top-rarity pull is guaranteed, then choose how many copies you want (up to max copies)
- 5For pin badges and trading cards, open “Blind-box set completion” and enter the number of regular and secret designs and how many you will buy
- 6Use “Copy result” to paste the numbers into a note or post, or “Copy URL with these settings” to share the same conditions
Great for
- See the chance of getting a 1% unit in 100 pulls, and how likely you are to get nothing
- Decide how many pulls (and how much money) you need to secure the featured unit in a 0.6% / 90-pity / 50-50 banner
- Estimate how many more pulls you need when you already have 60 pity carried over
- Budget for max copies (7) using the average and worst-case number of pulls
- Check the chance of getting the unit before reaching a 300-pull spark
- Find out how many random pin badges you must buy to complete a set of 8 and how many duplicates you will end up with
- See how many items you need to buy for a 90% chance of getting your favourite design
Good to know
- A drop rate of p% means “once every 100/p pulls”, but the chance of getting it within 100/p pulls is only about 63%. Missing many times does not change the chance of the next pull.
- Pity is modelled as “the top rarity is guaranteed on the Nth pull, and the counter resets when a top-rarity item appears”. Soft pity (rates rising near the end) is often undisclosed and is not included.
- The 50/50 loss rate is 1 − featured rate ÷ top-rarity rate. With the guarantee switched on, the top-rarity pull after a loss is always the featured unit.
- Spark/exchange gives one copy of the featured unit every N pulls; the points are not consumed when the unit drops from the gacha itself.
- Set completion assumes every regular design is equally likely. For secret designs, enter the chance of each one (one per box means 1 ÷ items per box).
- Cost is simply the price of one pull (item) × the number of pulls and does not include bundle discounts or free currency.
- The numbers you enter are calculated in your browser and never sent to a server.
Questions this tool answers
Use Gacha Probability Calculator | How Many Pulls Until You Get It? Pity, 50/50 Rate-up With Guarantee, Pulls to Max Copies, and How Many Blind Boxes to Complete a Set for searches like these:
- What is the chance of getting a 1% gacha unit in 100 pulls?
- How many pulls does it take to get a 0.6% unit?
- What is the expected number of pulls with 90 pity and a 50/50?
- How many pulls do I need for max constellations or max copies?
- How many more pulls do I need with my current pity carried over?
- How many blind boxes do I need to buy to complete a set?
- What is the chance of getting my favourite design from random merchandise?
- How likely am I to get nothing from a gacha?
FAQ
- What is the chance of getting a 1% unit in 100 pulls?
- About 63.4%, calculated as 1 − 0.99^100. Conversely, about 36.6% of players get nothing in 100 pulls. Half of players get it within 69 pulls, 90% within 230 pulls and 99% within 459 pulls.
- With a 0.6% rate, 90-pull pity and a 50/50, how many pulls does the featured unit take on average?
- Starting from 0 pity and no guarantee, the average is about 104.5 pulls and the worst case is 180 pulls (losing the 50/50 and then using the guarantee). The top rarity appears about once every 70 pulls on average and half of those lose the 50/50. Real games with soft pity need fewer pulls on average.
- How many pulls do I need for max copies?
- It depends heavily on the system, so use “Pity, 50/50 & copies”. For example, collecting 7 copies with a 0.6% rate, 90 pity and a 50/50 with guarantee takes about 732 pulls on average and 1,260 in the worst case. With a 300-pull exchange, exchanges alone guarantee 7 copies in 2,100 pulls.
- How do I account for carried-over pity?
- Enter the number of pulls since your last top-rarity item in “Current pity count”. If you lost the last 50/50 and your next top-rarity pull is guaranteed, switch on “Guarantee active now”. If you have exchange points saved up, enter them in “Current exchange points”.
- How many random pin badges do I need to buy to complete a set of 8?
- About 21.7 on average (8 × (1 + 1/2 + … + 1/8)). Half of collectors complete the set with 20, and 90% with 33. Because the designs you are missing become harder to hit, the last few designs take most of the purchases. Trading duplicates cuts the number dramatically.
- Can it handle secret (chase) designs?
- Yes. Enter the number of secret designs and the chance of each one. With “Collect the secrets too” on, it shows the chance of completing both the regular and secret designs; with it off, only the regular designs count.
- Is this a simulation?
- No. Instead of trying tens of thousands of random runs, it tracks the probability of every pity count, guarantee state and number of copies after each pull, so the same settings always give the same result.
Special Thanks